Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

60.29 – 274.79

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

52 – 367

Prediction correct · off by 50.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 227.8 ±17.7

2095Direct Current

Season APEX 47.5Event APEX 25.65Rank 31Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

10517Ctrl Alt Defeat

Provisional

Season APEX 72.7Event APEX 11.2Rank 28Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

2614Mountaineer Area RoboticS (MARS)

Season APEX 107.6Event APEX 23.44Rank 33Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 605.9 ±12.4

3504Girls of Steel

Season APEX 148.4Event APEX 33.03Rank 18Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

340G.R.R. (Greater Rochester Robotics)

Season APEX 265.2Event APEX 105.56Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3990Tech for Kids

Season APEX 192.3Event APEX 136.2Rank 3Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2095, 10517, 2614

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.3 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2095, 10517, 2614

Auto

14.2 24%

Teleop

35.6 60%

Endgame

9.9 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3504, 340, 3990

/ 100 compat

Projected

274.8 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3504, 340, 3990

Auto

56.5 21%

Teleop

136.5 50%

Endgame

78.1 29%

Strengths

· 3990 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.58 · Blue 2.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score60.3pts

Blue projected score274.8pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -214.5
Score range: 34–301
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 419 vs event baseline 146.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

227.8Season APEX605.9

14.2Auto56.5

35.6Teleop136.5

9.9Endgame78.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	73
teleop	4	194
endgame	8	100
foul	30	0
total	52	367

Result

Final score

52 – 367

Prediction correct · off by 50.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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