Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

178.26 – 279.93

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

251 – 315

Prediction correct · off by 53.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 399.3 ±19.1

3015Ranger Robotics

A+

Season APEX 312.5Event APEX 186.32Rank 2Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1317Digital Fusion

Provisional

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 18.38Rank 46Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

10515Aluminum Tethys

Provisional

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX -26.44Rank 49Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 520 ±12.9

1816"The Green Machine"

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 45.88Rank 17Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4028The Beak Squad

Season APEX 286.2Event APEX 157.49Rank 6Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

709Femme Tech Fatale

Season APEX 84.1Event APEX 76.56Rank 29Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3015, 1317, 10515

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.3 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3015, 1317, 10515

Auto

48.7 28%

Teleop

94.2 55%

Endgame

29.9 17%

Strengths

· 3015 anchors offense

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1816, 4028, 709

/ 100 compat

Projected

279.9 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 1816, 4028, 709

Auto

71.7 26%

Teleop

135.2 48%

Endgame

71.9 26%

Strengths

· 4028 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.91 · Blue 2.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score178.3pts

Blue projected score279.9pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -101.7
Score range: 153–305
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 566 vs event baseline 139.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

399.3Season APEX520

48.7Auto71.7

94.2Teleop135.2

29.9Endgame71.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	72	48
teleop	150	151
endgame	29	111
foul	0	5
total	251	315

Result

Final score

251 – 315

Prediction correct · off by 53.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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