Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

120.5 – 71.59

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

104 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 316.9 ±17.3

3260SHARP

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 48.66Rank 36Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

9653O.V.R.T.

Provisional

Season APEX 85.6Event APEX 43.2Rank 15Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

1816"The Green Machine"

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 28.64Rank 17Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 183.4 ±20.5

8705Sci Tech FRC

Provisional

Season APEX 71Event APEX 28.02Rank 40Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

6032Pirate Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 21.18Rank 41Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

4150FRobotics

Season APEX 77.9Event APEX 22.39Rank 35Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3260, 9653, 1816

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.5 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3260, 9653, 1816

Auto

23.7 20%

Teleop

64.4 53%

Endgame

33.2 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8705, 6032, 4150

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.6 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 8705, 6032, 4150

Auto

22.2 30%

Teleop

35.9 49%

Endgame

15.1 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score120.5pts

Blue projected score71.6pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 48.9
Score range: 41–152
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 177 vs event baseline 171.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

316.9Season APEX183.4

23.7Auto22.2

64.4Teleop35.9

33.2Endgame15.1

37Consistency119

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	7
teleop	57	35
endgame	26	31
foul	0	0
total	104	73

Result

Final score

104 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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