Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

209.92 – 61.32

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

352 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 84.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 486.5 ±15.5

9406TechJunior

Season APEX 155.3Event APEX 87.39Rank 4Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4027Centre Punch

Season APEX 202.6Event APEX 44.57Rank 14Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9022MC Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 128.6Event APEX 77.96Rank 25Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 249.4 ±20

1601Quantum Samurai

Season APEX 118.6Event APEX -1.42Rank 20Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6032Pirate Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 31.94Rank 41Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

7274Brashear Bulls Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 96.3Event APEX 30.8Rank 30Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9406, 4027, 9022

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.9 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9406, 4027, 9022

Auto

33.0 15%

Teleop

117.9 55%

Endgame

63.4 30%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 1601, 6032, 7274

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.3 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1601, 6032, 7274

Auto

16.1 25%

Teleop

33.0 52%

Endgame

14.1 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.44 · Blue 0.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score209.9pts

Blue projected score61.3pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 148.6
Score range: 37–234
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 441 vs event baseline 134.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

486.5Season APEX249.4

33Auto16.1

117.9Teleop33

63.4Endgame14.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	35
teleop	209	42
endgame	75	12
foul	0	0
total	352	89

Result

Final score

352 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 84.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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