Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

120.58 – 47.76

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

166 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 64.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 336.4 ±17

5740Trojanators

Season APEX 153.2Event APEX 55.29Rank 13Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10513Team Humanity Robo Falcons

Provisional

Season APEX 105.3Event APEX 51.9Rank 9Record 6-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4150FRobotics

Season APEX 77.9Event APEX 13.39Rank 35Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 354 ±15.6

3324The Metrobots

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX -13.41Rank 47Record 1-7-0Status establishedConfidence 86

4467Titanium Titans

Season APEX 191.4Event APEX 19.01Rank 12Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2234Alternating Current

Season APEX 96.9Event APEX 42.16Rank 22Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5740, 10513, 4150

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.6 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 5740, 10513, 4150

Auto

17.6 15%

Teleop

94.6 79%

Endgame

7.0 6%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3324, 4467, 2234

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.8 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3324, 4467, 2234

Auto

-2.4 0%

Teleop

59.9 100%

Endgame

-14.7 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.96 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score120.6pts

Blue projected score47.8pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 72.8
Score range: 23–146
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 298 vs event baseline 136.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

336.4Season APEX354

17.6Auto-2.4

94.6Teleop59.9

7Endgame-14.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	20
teleop	106	79
endgame	35	33
foul	0	0
total	166	132

Result

Final score

166 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 64.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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