Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

32.44 – 57.56

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

17 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 16.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 230.1 ±18.2

10582The Technochauns

Season APEX 129.2Event APEX -4.22Rank 42Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 85

2641Pittsburgh Central Catholic Robotics

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 34.92Rank 43Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11456UMWACC Ruff Creek RoboMiners

Provisional

Season APEX 40.5Event APEX 1.74Rank 50Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 232.7 ±20.5

10517Ctrl Alt Defeat

Provisional

Season APEX 72.7Event APEX 21.19Rank 28Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

10512Beyond Grad Greyhounds

Provisional

Season APEX 53.2Event APEX 39.88Rank 37Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

7515Dark Side Robotics

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX -3.51Rank 21Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10582, 2641, 11456

/ 100 compat

Projected

32.4 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 10582, 2641, 11456

Auto

13.3 38%

Teleop

35.3 100%

Endgame

-13.4 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10517, 10512, 7515

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10517, 10512, 7515

Auto

9.5 16%

Teleop

39.8 68%

Endgame

9.0 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.16 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score32.4pts

Blue projected score57.6pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -25.1
Score range: 6–84
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 57 vs event baseline 143.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

230.1Season APEX232.7

13.3Auto9.5

35.3Teleop39.8

-13.4Endgame9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	10
teleop	5	24
endgame	0	6
foul	0	0
total	17	40

Result

Final score

17 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 16.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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