Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

201.82 – 152.15

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

487 – 369

Prediction correct · off by 251 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 706.9 ±14.3

3015Ranger Robotics

A+

Season APEX 312.5Event APEX 91.99Rank 2Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2656Quasics

Provisional

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 34.69Rank 7Record 7-1-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4028The Beak Squad

Season APEX 286.2Event APEX 75.14Rank 6Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 668 ±11

117Steel Dragons

Season APEX 270.4Event APEX 50.41Rank 11Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3990Tech for Kids

Season APEX 192.3Event APEX 67.05Rank 3Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1511Rolling Thunder

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 34.69Rank 5Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3015, 2656, 4028

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.8 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3015, 2656, 4028

Auto

29.0 14%

Teleop

134.2 67%

Endgame

37.2 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 117, 3990, 1511

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.1 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 117, 3990, 1511

Auto

25.2 17%

Teleop

96.5 66%

Endgame

25.1 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.94 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score201.8pts

Blue projected score152.1pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 49.7
Score range: 130–224
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 856 vs event baseline 123.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

706.9Season APEX668

29Auto25.2

134.2Teleop96.5

37.2Endgame25.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	126	68
teleop	246	158
endgame	115	133
foul	0	10
total	487	369

Result

Final score

487 – 369

Prediction correct · off by 251 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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