Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

47.9 – 75.69

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

73 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 46.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 344.8 ±17.3

1816"The Green Machine"

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 21.41Rank 17Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

451Cat Attack Robotics

Season APEX 110.1Event APEX 9.35Rank 44Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

10516Code Red

Provisional

Season APEX 85Event APEX 17.14Rank 34Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 391.4 ±15.4

4027Centre Punch

Season APEX 202.6Event APEX 9.2Rank 14Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4050Biohazard

Season APEX 40.4Event APEX 8.49Rank 48Record 1-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

3504Girls of Steel

Season APEX 148.4Event APEX 58Rank 18Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1816, 451, 10516

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.9 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 1816, 451, 10516

Auto

10.3 21%

Teleop

23.8 48%

Endgame

15.7 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4027, 4050, 3504

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.7 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4027, 4050, 3504

Auto

9.5 13%

Teleop

44.7 62%

Endgame

17.5 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.22 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score47.9pts

Blue projected score75.7pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -27.8
Score range: 26–98
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 217 vs event baseline 124.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

344.8Season APEX391.4

10.3Auto9.5

23.8Teleop44.7

15.7Endgame17.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	13
teleop	32	59
endgame	27	67
foul	0	5
total	73	144

Result

Final score

73 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 46.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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