Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 84.43

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

44 – 103

Prediction correct · off by 31.3 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 192.9 ±20

2614Mountaineer Area RoboticS (MARS)

Season APEX 107.6Event APEX 7.41Rank 33Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10300Obama FRC

Provisional

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX -29.88Rank 39Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

6032Pirate Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 20.45Rank 41Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 315.1 ±19.4

1317Digital Fusion

Provisional

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 11.43Rank 46Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

4269CardinalBots

Provisional

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 3.57Rank 10Record 6-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

5740Trojanators

Season APEX 153.2Event APEX 69.43Rank 13Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2614, 10300, 6032

/ 100 compat

Projected

-2 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2614, 10300, 6032

Auto

0.8 0%

Teleop

3.4 0%

Endgame

-8.3 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1317, 4269, 5740

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.4 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 1317, 4269, 5740

Auto

24.7 29%

Teleop

44.4 53%

Endgame

15.3 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.81 · Blue 2.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score-2pts

Blue projected score84.4pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -84.4
Score range: -24–108
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 147 vs event baseline 135.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

192.9Season APEX315.1

0.8Auto24.7

3.4Teleop44.4

-8.3Endgame15.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	26
teleop	30	65
endgame	0	12
foul	0	0
total	44	103

Result

Final score

44 – 103

Prediction correct · off by 31.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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