Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

88.58 – 116.35

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

264 – 143

Prediction missed · off by 101 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 432.4 ±14.1

2010The Lightning Bots

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX -7.14Rank 23Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

340G.R.R. (Greater Rochester Robotics)

Season APEX 265.2Event APEX 72.29Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

709Femme Tech Fatale

Season APEX 84.1Event APEX 23.43Rank 29Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 286.2 ±17.7

9022MC Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 128.6Event APEX 72.29Rank 25Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

1708AMP'D Robotics

Season APEX 76Event APEX 15.71Rank 24Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3260SHARP

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 28.35Rank 36Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2010, 340, 709

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.6 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2010, 340, 709

Auto

23.5 27%

Teleop

36.9 42%

Endgame

28.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9022, 1708, 3260

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.4 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9022, 1708, 3260

Auto

21.8 19%

Teleop

68.1 59%

Endgame

24.8 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score88.6pts

Blue projected score116.4pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -27.8
Score range: 66–139
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 407 vs event baseline 128.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

432.4Season APEX286.2

23.5Auto21.8

36.9Teleop68.1

28Endgame24.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	21
teleop	114	81
endgame	76	41
foul	0	0
total	264	143

Result

Final score

264 – 143

Prediction missed · off by 101 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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