Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

87.7 – 43.09

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

73 – 166

Prediction missed · off by 68.8 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 199.5 ±22.5

63McDowell Robotics Team 63

Provisional

Season APEX 75.2Event APEX 59.18Rank 26Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9415Westinghouse Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 53.3Event APEX 7.66Rank 38Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

8705Sci Tech FRC

Provisional

Season APEX 71Event APEX 20.86Rank 40Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 298 ±17.3

3173IgKnighters

Season APEX 154.2Event APEX 29.14Rank 8Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7274Brashear Bulls Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 96.3Event APEX 6.29Rank 30Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

2095Direct Current

Season APEX 47.5Event APEX 7.66Rank 31Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 63, 9415, 8705

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.7 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 63, 9415, 8705

Auto

17.7 20%

Teleop

43.0 49%

Endgame

26.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 3173, 7274, 2095

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.1 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3173, 7274, 2095

Auto

12.5 30%

Teleop

27.7 66%

Endgame

1.5 4%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score87.7pts

Blue projected score43.1pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 44.6
Score range: 20–111
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 239 vs event baseline 129.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

199.5Season APEX298

17.7Auto12.5

43Teleop27.7

26.8Endgame1.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	33
teleop	24	107
endgame	37	26
foul	0	0
total	73	166

Result

Final score

73 – 166

Prediction missed · off by 68.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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