Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

199.99 – 230.45

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

214 – 203

Prediction missed · off by 20.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 322.1 ±16.9

3484Short Circuit

Season APEX 91.6Event APEX 41.03Rank 19Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 86

63McDowell Robotics Team 63

Provisional

Season APEX 75.2Event APEX 32.27Rank 26Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9406TechJunior

Season APEX 155.3Event APEX 126.69Rank 4Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 610.2 ±14.1

3504Girls of Steel

Season APEX 148.4Event APEX 11.51Rank 18Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4467Titanium Titans

Season APEX 191.4Event APEX 88.11Rank 12Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

117Steel Dragons

Season APEX 270.4Event APEX 130.83Rank 11Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3484, 63, 9406

/ 100 compat

Projected

200 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3484, 63, 9406

Auto

39.7 20%

Teleop

99.1 51%

Endgame

56.6 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3504, 4467, 117

/ 100 compat

Projected

230.5 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3504, 4467, 117

Auto

44.5 20%

Teleop

108.3 49%

Endgame

66.4 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score200pts

Blue projected score230.5pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -30.5
Score range: 169–261
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 417 vs event baseline 171.8.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

322.1Season APEX610.2

39.7Auto44.5

99.1Teleop108.3

56.6Endgame66.4

7Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	23
teleop	105	114
endgame	58	46
foul	0	20
total	214	203

Result

Final score

214 – 203

Prediction missed · off by 20.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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