Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

115.75 – 144.18

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

79 – 155

Prediction correct · off by 23.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 230.1 ±11

7587Metuchen Momentum

Season APEX 108.6Event APEX 81.83Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2016Mighty Monkey Wrenches

Season APEX 83.7Event APEX 13.25Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4750Bert

Season APEX 37.8Event APEX 20.67Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 269.8 ±10.4

2554The Warhawks

Season APEX 55.2Event APEX 17.43Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1089Team Mercury

Season APEX 150Event APEX 90.87Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5789The Other Owls

Season APEX 64.6Event APEX 35.88Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7587, 2016, 4750

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 7587, 2016, 4750

Auto

32.7 31%

Teleop

52.3 49%

Endgame

21.7 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2554, 1089, 5789

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2554, 1089, 5789

Auto

35.4 25%

Teleop

77.2 55%

Endgame

27.0 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.33 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score115.8pts

Blue projected score144.2pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -28.4
Score range: 88–172
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 234 vs event baseline 155.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

230.1Season APEX269.8

32.7Auto35.4

52.3Teleop77.2

21.7Endgame27

79Consistency97

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	33
teleop	28	85
endgame	22	37
foul	10	0
total	79	155

Result

Final score

79 – 155

Prediction correct · off by 23.8 pts

Match videos

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