Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

131.16 – 131.79

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

128 – 205

Prediction correct · off by 38.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 227 ±10.5

2722Charge Robotics

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 53.43Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4575Gemini

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 19.26Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9027PATH to Domination

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 58.47Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 269.8 ±10.4

2554The Warhawks

Season APEX 55.2Event APEX 13.02Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1089Team Mercury

Season APEX 150Event APEX 86.54Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5789The Other Owls

Season APEX 64.6Event APEX 32.23Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2722, 4575, 9027

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2722, 4575, 9027

Auto

22.3 17%

Teleop

68.6 51%

Endgame

43.8 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2554, 1089, 5789

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2554, 1089, 5789

Auto

38.2 30%

Teleop

64.1 50%

Endgame

24.8 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score131.2pts

Blue projected score131.8pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -0.6
Score range: 103–160
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 333 vs event baseline 152.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

227Season APEX269.8

22.3Auto38.2

68.6Teleop64.1

43.8Endgame24.8

74Consistency98

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	25
teleop	71	139
endgame	22	36
foul	0	5
total	128	205

Result

Final score

128 – 205

Prediction correct · off by 38.2 pts

Match videos

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