Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

238.93 – 129.63

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

374 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 75.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 611.4 ±9.3

427LANCE-A-LOT

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 25.46Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2590Nemesis

Season APEX 231.6Event APEX 96.03Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2539Krypton Cougars

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 117.44Rank 6Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 227 ±10.5

2722Charge Robotics

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 53.32Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4575Gemini

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 18.59Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9027PATH to Domination

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 57.72Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 427, 2590, 2539

/ 100 compat

Projected

238.9 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 427, 2590, 2539

Auto

55.5 24%

Teleop

138.1 59%

Endgame

41.4 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2722, 4575, 9027

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2722, 4575, 9027

Auto

19.0 14%

Teleop

69.3 52%

Endgame

45.8 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.13 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score238.9pts

Blue projected score129.6pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 109.3
Score range: 103–266
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 519 vs event baseline 151.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

611.4Season APEX227

55.5Auto19

138.1Teleop69.3

41.4Endgame45.8

5Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	39
teleop	186	65
endgame	115	41
foul	0	0
total	374	145

Result

Final score

374 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 75.2 pts

Match videos

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