Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

137.21 – 157.61

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

152 – 150

Prediction missed · off by 11.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 389.7 ±9.8

7587Metuchen Momentum

Season APEX 108.6Event APEX 82.37Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2016Mighty Monkey Wrenches

Season APEX 83.7Event APEX 15.39Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1807Redbird Robotics

Season APEX 197.4Event APEX 39.45Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 318.6 ±10.4

5401Fightin' Robotic Owls

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 89.25Rank 16Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

10584Ridge Robotics

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX 33.24Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1712Dawgma

Season APEX 100Event APEX 35.12Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7587, 2016, 1807

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7587, 2016, 1807

Auto

30.1 24%

Teleop

64.6 51%

Endgame

31.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5401, 10584, 1712

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5401, 10584, 1712

Auto

24.2 16%

Teleop

88.3 59%

Endgame

37.0 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.42 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score137.2pts

Blue projected score157.6pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -20.4
Score range: 110–185
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 302 vs event baseline 151.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

389.7Season APEX318.6

30.1Auto24.2

64.6Teleop88.3

31.4Endgame37

25Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	31
teleop	84	88
endgame	44	31
foul	5	0
total	152	150

Result

Final score

152 – 150

Prediction missed · off by 11.2 pts

Match videos

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