Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

252.8 – 208.81

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

257 – 166

Prediction correct · off by 23.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 611.4 ±9.3

427LANCE-A-LOT

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 30.15Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2590Nemesis

Season APEX 231.6Event APEX 101.63Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2539Krypton Cougars

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 121.02Rank 6Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 474.6 ±10.5

4342Demon Robotics

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 31.36Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1640Sab-BOT-age

Season APEX 278.5Event APEX 74.33Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4285Camo-Bots

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 103.12Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 427, 2590, 2539

/ 100 compat

Projected

252.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 427, 2590, 2539

Auto

64.5 26%

Teleop

138.0 55%

Endgame

47.6 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4342, 1640, 4285

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4342, 1640, 4285

Auto

30.2 15%

Teleop

116.7 59%

Endgame

49.4 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score252.8pts

Blue projected score208.8pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 44
Score range: 181–281
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 423 vs event baseline 157.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

611.4Season APEX474.6

64.5Auto30.2

138Teleop116.7

47.6Endgame49.4

0Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	42
teleop	151	61
endgame	52	43
foul	0	20
total	257	166

Result

Final score

257 – 166

Prediction correct · off by 23.5 pts

Match videos

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