Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

202.55 – 146.42

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

254 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 29 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 474.6 ±10.5

4342Demon Robotics

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 29.23Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1640Sab-BOT-age

Season APEX 278.5Event APEX 72.26Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4285Camo-Bots

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 101.06Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 269.8 ±10.4

2554The Warhawks

Season APEX 55.2Event APEX 18.43Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1089Team Mercury

Season APEX 150Event APEX 91.34Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5789The Other Owls

Season APEX 64.6Event APEX 36.65Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4342, 1640, 4285

/ 100 compat

Projected

202.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4342, 1640, 4285

Auto

27.9 15%

Teleop

111.4 59%

Endgame

49.8 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2554, 1089, 5789

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2554, 1089, 5789

Auto

35.1 25%

Teleop

79.1 55%

Endgame

28.9 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score202.6pts

Blue projected score146.4pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 56.1
Score range: 118–231
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 407 vs event baseline 156.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

474.6Season APEX269.8

27.9Auto35.1

111.4Teleop79.1

49.8Endgame28.9

17Consistency105

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	39
teleop	154	67
endgame	48	47
foul	5	0
total	254	153

Result

Final score

254 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 29 pts

Match videos

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