Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

196.15 – 154.58

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

233 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 40.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 474.6 ±10.5

4342Demon Robotics

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 27.29Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1640Sab-BOT-age

Season APEX 278.5Event APEX 70Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4285Camo-Bots

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 98.86Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 318.6 ±10.4

5401Fightin' Robotic Owls

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 88.62Rank 16Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

10584Ridge Robotics

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX 32.73Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1712Dawgma

Season APEX 100Event APEX 33.23Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4342, 1640, 4285

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4342, 1640, 4285

Auto

25.5 13%

Teleop

117.2 61%

Endgame

49.9 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5401, 10584, 1712

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5401, 10584, 1712

Auto

27.8 19%

Teleop

80.3 55%

Endgame

38.6 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.79 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score196.1pts

Blue projected score154.6pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.6
Score range: 127–224
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 343 vs event baseline 155.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

474.6Season APEX318.6

25.5Auto27.8

117.2Teleop80.3

49.9Endgame38.6

21Consistency41

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	46
teleop	74	50
endgame	43	9
foul	75	5
total	233	110

Result

Final score

233 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 40.7 pts

Match videos

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