Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

87.72 – 192.86

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

224 – 77

Prediction missed · off by 126.1 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 465.1 ±10.5

1640Sab-BOT-age

Season APEX 278.5Event APEX 30.29Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7414Retrobotics

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 10.29Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1089Team Mercury

Season APEX 150Event APEX 47.14Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 193.9 ±11

5789The Other Owls

Season APEX 64.6Event APEX 47.14Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9027PATH to Domination

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 135.43Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8630CAP ROBOTICS

Season APEX 48.1Event APEX 10.29Rank 31Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1640, 7414, 1089

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1640, 7414, 1089

Auto

20.6 25%

Teleop

46.0 56%

Endgame

15.4 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5789, 9027, 8630

/ 100 compat

Projected

192.9 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5789, 9027, 8630

Auto

26.4 14%

Teleop

116.2 62%

Endgame

45.4 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.98 · Blue 2.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score87.7pts

Blue projected score192.9pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -105.1
Score range: 61–220
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 301 vs event baseline 152.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

465.1Season APEX193.9

20.6Auto26.4

46Teleop116.2

15.4Endgame45.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	26
teleop	127	20
endgame	67	31
foul	0	0
total	224	77

Result

Final score

224 – 77

Prediction missed · off by 126.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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