Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

84.91 – 150.64

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

145 – 61

Prediction missed · off by 74.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 212.4 ±12.2

4750Bert

Season APEX 37.8Event APEX 15.21Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1089Team Mercury

Season APEX 150Event APEX 81.47Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8704Void Warranty

Season APEX 24.6Event APEX -11.77Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 206.3 ±11.6

834SparTechs

Season APEX 86Event APEX 91.03Rank 13Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

2016Mighty Monkey Wrenches

Season APEX 83.7Event APEX 21.57Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7414Retrobotics

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 38.04Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4750, 1089, 8704

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4750, 1089, 8704

Auto

27.3 37%

Teleop

37.4 51%

Endgame

9.1 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 834, 2016, 7414

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 834, 2016, 7414

Auto

34.9 24%

Teleop

68.6 47%

Endgame

43.9 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.09 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score84.9pts

Blue projected score150.6pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -65.7
Score range: 58–178
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 206 vs event baseline 149.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

212.4Season APEX206.3

27.3Auto34.9

37.4Teleop68.6

9.1Endgame43.9

105Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	40
teleop	73	13
endgame	18	3
foul	15	5
total	145	61

Result

Final score

145 – 61

Prediction missed · off by 74.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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