Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

101.39 – 132.13

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

49 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 37.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 411.1 ±9.9

1640Sab-BOT-age

Season APEX 278.5Event APEX 70.99Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8630CAP ROBOTICS

Season APEX 48.1Event APEX 7.81Rank 31Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 97

4575Gemini

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 22.59Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 238.9 ±12.8

5490The Dark Byte

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 9.04Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8721Code Name M.I.T.

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 25.91Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4285Camo-Bots

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 97.18Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1640, 8630, 4575

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1640, 8630, 4575

Auto

26.0 25%

Teleop

61.3 58%

Endgame

18.4 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5490, 8721, 4285

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5490, 8721, 4285

Auto

23.9 18%

Teleop

85.4 65%

Endgame

22.7 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.34 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score101.4pts

Blue projected score132.1pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -30.7
Score range: 74–159
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 159 vs event baseline 148.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

411.1Season APEX238.9

26Auto23.9

61.3Teleop85.4

18.4Endgame22.7

42Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	22
teleop	8	50
endgame	31	38
foul	0	0
total	49	110

Result

Final score

49 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 37.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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