Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

187.71 – 84.27

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

215 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 18 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 438 ±9.8

2554The Warhawks

Season APEX 55.2Event APEX 10.66Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2539Krypton Cougars

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 123.99Rank 6Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

9027PATH to Domination

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 53.06Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 158.3 ±12.7

4342Demon Robotics

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 22.25Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

714Panthera

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 12.77Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2722Charge Robotics

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 49.25Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2554, 2539, 9027

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2554, 2539, 9027

Auto

47.7 26%

Teleop

90.0 48%

Endgame

48.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4342, 714, 2722

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4342, 714, 2722

Auto

9.4 11%

Teleop

41.4 49%

Endgame

33.2 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.08 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score187.7pts

Blue projected score84.3pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 103.4
Score range: 57–215
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 308 vs event baseline 148.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

438Season APEX158.3

47.7Auto9.4

90Teleop41.4

48.8Endgame33.2

14Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	20
teleop	116	35
endgame	72	33
foul	0	5
total	215	93

Result

Final score

215 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 18 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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