Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

131.57 – 118.66

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

145 – 141

Prediction correct · off by 17.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 246.4 ±11

4750Bert

Season APEX 37.8Event APEX 14.93Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7587Metuchen Momentum

Season APEX 108.6Event APEX 81.96Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1712Dawgma

Season APEX 100Event APEX 34.68Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 259.2 ±11

8630CAP ROBOTICS

Season APEX 48.1Event APEX 7.27Rank 31Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 97

427LANCE-A-LOT

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 23.53Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5401Fightin' Robotic Owls

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 87.86Rank 16Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4750, 7587, 1712

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4750, 7587, 1712

Auto

36.9 30%

Teleop

64.4 52%

Endgame

22.3 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8630, 427, 5401

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8630, 427, 5401

Auto

21.8 19%

Teleop

64.4 57%

Endgame

27.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score131.6pts

Blue projected score118.7pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 12.9
Score range: 92–159
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 286 vs event baseline 147.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

246.4Season APEX259.2

36.9Auto21.8

64.4Teleop64.4

22.3Endgame27.2

35Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	14
teleop	72	65
endgame	36	47
foul	0	15
total	145	141

Result

Final score

145 – 141

Prediction correct · off by 17.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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