Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

87.42 – 212.26

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

161 – 465

Prediction correct · off by 163.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 243.3 ±11.7

1089Team Mercury

Season APEX 150Event APEX 77.49Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4637BambieBotz

Season APEX 9.6Event APEX -6.05Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2016Mighty Monkey Wrenches

Season APEX 83.7Event APEX 15.98Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 427.1 ±11.7

7414Retrobotics

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 17.42Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

316LUNATECS

A+

Season APEX 329.3Event APEX 165.98Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

87Diablo

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 28.86Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1089, 4637, 2016

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.4 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1089, 4637, 2016

Auto

25.3 31%

Teleop

33.8 42%

Endgame

21.4 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7414, 316, 87

/ 100 compat

Projected

212.3 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 7414, 316, 87

Auto

46.1 22%

Teleop

102.9 50%

Endgame

56.1 27%

Strengths

· 316 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.91 · Blue 2.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score87.4pts

Blue projected score212.3pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -124.8
Score range: 61–238
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 626 vs event baseline 145.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

243.3Season APEX427.1

25.3Auto46.1

33.8Teleop102.9

21.4Endgame56.1

95Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	45
teleop	103	284
endgame	37	126
foul	0	10
total	161	465

Result

Final score

161 – 465

Prediction correct · off by 163.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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