Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

127.57 – 98.83

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

70 – 123

Prediction missed · off by 40.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 147.2 ±13.3

8721Code Name M.I.T.

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 32.66Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8704Void Warranty

Season APEX 24.6Event APEX -0.26Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

834SparTechs

Season APEX 86Event APEX 95.17Rank 13Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 172.5 ±12.2

714Panthera

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 14.71Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5789The Other Owls

Season APEX 64.6Event APEX 33.56Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1257Parallel Universe

Season APEX 56.2Event APEX 50.56Rank 12Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8721, 8704, 834

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8721, 8704, 834

Auto

36.8 29%

Teleop

60.1 47%

Endgame

30.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 714, 5789, 1257

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 714, 5789, 1257

Auto

21.6 22%

Teleop

57.4 60%

Endgame

17.1 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score127.6pts

Blue projected score98.8pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 28.7
Score range: 73–154
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 193 vs event baseline 146.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

147.2Season APEX172.5

36.8Auto21.6

60.1Teleop57.4

30.9Endgame17.1

47Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	45
teleop	6	52
endgame	25	26
foul	0	0
total	70	123

Result

Final score

70 – 123

Prediction missed · off by 40.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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