Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

156.97 – 131.35

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

107 – 181

Prediction missed · off by 49.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 394.3 ±9.3

427LANCE-A-LOT

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 33.27Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4575Gemini

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 19.15Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2590Nemesis

Season APEX 231.6Event APEX 104.55Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 362.9 ±12.4

4637BambieBotz

Season APEX 9.6Event APEX -5.13Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2539Krypton Cougars

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 123.98Rank 6Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

714Panthera

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 12.5Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 427, 4575, 2590

/ 100 compat

Projected

157 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 427, 4575, 2590

Auto

43.1 27%

Teleop

82.4 52%

Endgame

32.3 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4637, 2539, 714

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4637, 2539, 714

Auto

31.4 24%

Teleop

60.1 46%

Endgame

39.2 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score157pts

Blue projected score131.4pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 25.6
Score range: 102–186
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 288 vs event baseline 163.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

394.3Season APEX362.9

43.1Auto31.4

82.4Teleop60.1

32.3Endgame39.2

44Consistency67

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	38
teleop	76	91
endgame	14	52
foul	0	0
total	107	181

Result

Final score

107 – 181

Prediction missed · off by 49.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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