Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

130.49 – 208.12

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

222 – 113

Prediction missed · off by 93.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 306 ±10.4

4285Camo-Bots

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 95.82Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1712Dawgma

Season APEX 100Event APEX 27.62Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2554The Warhawks

Season APEX 55.2Event APEX 7.05Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 419 ±11.1

2722Charge Robotics

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 61.14Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10143Northeast Vikings

Season APEX 56.1Event APEX 11.44Rank 34Record 1-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2539Krypton Cougars

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 135.54Rank 6Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4285, 1712, 2554

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4285, 1712, 2554

Auto

23.1 19%

Teleop

70.0 58%

Endgame

28.0 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2722, 10143, 2539

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.1 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2722, 10143, 2539

Auto

42.3 20%

Teleop

119.5 57%

Endgame

46.6 22%

Strengths

· 2539 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.08 · Blue 2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score130.5pts

Blue projected score208.1pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -77.6
Score range: 104–234
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 335 vs event baseline 145.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

306Season APEX419

23.1Auto42.3

70Teleop119.5

28Endgame46.6

24Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	15
teleop	156	49
endgame	39	34
foul	0	15
total	222	113

Result

Final score

222 – 113

Prediction missed · off by 93.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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