Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

189.81 – 250.74

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

252 – 264

Prediction correct · off by 37.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 317.7 ±11

5401Fightin' Robotic Owls

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 81.2Rank 16Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

9100Robo Roses

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 33.15Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7587Metuchen Momentum

Season APEX 108.6Event APEX 75.46Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 559.8 ±10.7

2590Nemesis

Season APEX 231.6Event APEX 87.05Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

103Cybersonics

Season APEX 276.7Event APEX 149.7Rank 2Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5490The Dark Byte

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 13.99Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5401, 9100, 7587

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5401, 9100, 7587

Auto

38.9 21%

Teleop

91.0 50%

Endgame

52.6 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2590, 103, 5490

/ 100 compat

Projected

250.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2590, 103, 5490

Auto

57.1 23%

Teleop

158.7 63%

Endgame

35.0 14%

Strengths

· 103 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.24 · Blue 1.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score189.8pts

Blue projected score250.7pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -60.9
Score range: 164–277
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 516 vs event baseline 143.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

317.7Season APEX559.8

38.9Auto57.1

91Teleop158.7

52.6Endgame35

20Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	54
teleop	143	160
endgame	63	50
foul	5	0
total	252	264

Result

Final score

252 – 264

Prediction correct · off by 37.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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