Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

216.13 – 97.89

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

115 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 66.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 423.4 ±10.7

316LUNATECS

A+

Season APEX 329.3Event APEX 178.7Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4575Gemini

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 33.89Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4637BambieBotz

Season APEX 9.6Event APEX 3.54Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 328.4 ±10.5

10584Ridge Robotics

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX 34.95Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4342Demon Robotics

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 23.22Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1807Redbird Robotics

Season APEX 197.4Event APEX 39.72Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 316, 4575, 4637

/ 100 compat

Projected

216.1 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 316, 4575, 4637

Auto

52.8 24%

Teleop

114.1 52%

Endgame

52.2 24%

Strengths

· 316 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10584, 4342, 1807

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.9 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10584, 4342, 1807

Auto

11.3 13%

Teleop

47.0 55%

Endgame

27.6 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.21 · Blue 0.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score216.1pts

Blue projected score97.9pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 118.2
Score range: 72–242
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 181 vs event baseline 144.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

423.4Season APEX328.4

52.8Auto11.3

114.1Teleop47

52.2Endgame27.6

61Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	20
teleop	57	36
endgame	31	10
foul	0	0
total	115	66

Result

Final score

115 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 66.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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