Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

77.24 – 96.03

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

89 – 210

Prediction correct · off by 62.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 237.5 ±11.2

8704Void Warranty

Season APEX 24.6Event APEX -3.99Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

321RoboLancers

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 26.76Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9027PATH to Domination

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 54.47Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 355.9 ±11.1

8630CAP ROBOTICS

Season APEX 48.1Event APEX -2.69Rank 31Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 97

2590Nemesis

Season APEX 231.6Event APEX 76.61Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9100Robo Roses

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 22.11Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8704, 321, 9027

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8704, 321, 9027

Auto

15.9 21%

Teleop

17.6 23%

Endgame

42.9 56%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8630, 2590, 9100

/ 100 compat

Projected

96 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8630, 2590, 9100

Auto

33.8 35%

Teleop

50.8 53%

Endgame

11.7 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.35 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score77.2pts

Blue projected score96pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18.8
Score range: 51–122
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 299 vs event baseline 143.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

237.5Season APEX355.9

15.9Auto33.8

17.6Teleop50.8

42.9Endgame11.7

15Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	35
teleop	43	150
endgame	28	25
foul	5	0
total	89	210

Result

Final score

89 – 210

Prediction correct · off by 62.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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