Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

113.21 – 134.71

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

175 – 160

Prediction missed · off by 43.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 175.5 ±12.7

834SparTechs

Season APEX 86Event APEX 90.11Rank 13Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

4750Bert

Season APEX 37.8Event APEX 10.35Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

714Panthera

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 12.75Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 271.1 ±11.2

1089Team Mercury

Season APEX 150Event APEX 75.71Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4575Gemini

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 31.9Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8721Code Name M.I.T.

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 27.1Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 834, 4750, 714

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 834, 4750, 714

Auto

28.5 27%

Teleop

48.5 46%

Endgame

27.5 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1089, 4575, 8721

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1089, 4575, 8721

Auto

32.9 24%

Teleop

67.0 49%

Endgame

36.1 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score113.2pts

Blue projected score134.7pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -21.5
Score range: 87–161
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 335 vs event baseline 143.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

175.5Season APEX271.1

28.5Auto32.9

48.5Teleop67

27.5Endgame36.1

57Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	32
teleop	93	109
endgame	39	19
foul	0	0
total	175	160

Result

Final score

175 – 160

Prediction missed · off by 43.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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