Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

280.02 – 242.84

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

338 – 216

Prediction correct · off by 42.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 646.6 ±9.3

2590Nemesis

Season APEX 231.6Event APEX 71.78Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

316LUNATECS

A+

Season APEX 329.3Event APEX 179.26Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10584Ridge Robotics

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX 28.98Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 297.3 ±11.6

2722Charge Robotics

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 67.04Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

834SparTechs

Season APEX 86Event APEX 97.3Rank 13Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

1089Team Mercury

Season APEX 150Event APEX 78.5Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2590, 316, 10584

/ 100 compat

Projected

280 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2590, 316, 10584

Auto

60.8 22%

Teleop

170.4 61%

Endgame

47.0 17%

Strengths

· 316 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2722, 834, 1089

/ 100 compat

Projected

242.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2722, 834, 1089

Auto

42.5 18%

Teleop

138.6 58%

Endgame

57.3 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score280pts

Blue projected score242.8pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 37.2
Score range: 218–305
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 554 vs event baseline 138.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

646.6Season APEX297.3

60.8Auto42.5

170.4Teleop138.6

47Endgame57.3

53Consistency71

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	40
teleop	206	124
endgame	75	52
foul	10	0
total	338	216

Result

Final score

338 – 216

Prediction correct · off by 42.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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