Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

42.92 – 64.04

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

108 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 63.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 165.4 ±12.2

9100Robo Roses

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 18.31Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8704Void Warranty

Season APEX 24.6Event APEX -6.3Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5789The Other Owls

Season APEX 64.6Event APEX 30.91Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 181.3 ±11.7

4575Gemini

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 28.12Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5490The Dark Byte

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 12.44Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4342Demon Robotics

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 23.48Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9100, 8704, 5789

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9100, 8704, 5789

Auto

19.8 56%

Teleop

7.3 21%

Endgame

8.3 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4575, 5490, 4342

/ 100 compat

Projected

64 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4575, 5490, 4342

Auto

19.9 29%

Teleop

32.5 47%

Endgame

16.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.36 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score42.9pts

Blue projected score64pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -21.1
Score range: 18–89
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 234 vs event baseline 138.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

165.4Season APEX181.3

19.8Auto19.9

7.3Teleop32.5

8.3Endgame16.2

39Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	34
teleop	48	54
endgame	23	38
foul	0	0
total	108	126

Result

Final score

108 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 63.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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