Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

132.18 – 158.83

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

36 – 165

Prediction correct · off by 51.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 235.5 ±11.6

7414Retrobotics

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 27.73Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4285Camo-Bots

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 101.87Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8630CAP ROBOTICS

Season APEX 48.1Event APEX 2.58Rank 31Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 300.3 ±10.4

10584Ridge Robotics

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX 30.59Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1089Team Mercury

Season APEX 150Event APEX 91.21Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5789The Other Owls

Season APEX 64.6Event APEX 37.03Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7414, 4285, 8630

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 7414, 4285, 8630

Auto

10.7 9%

Teleop

79.9 65%

Endgame

32.8 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10584, 1089, 5789

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10584, 1089, 5789

Auto

32.2 21%

Teleop

90.8 59%

Endgame

31.7 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score132.2pts

Blue projected score158.8pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -26.7
Score range: 103–188
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 201 vs event baseline 163.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

235.5Season APEX300.3

10.7Auto32.2

79.9Teleop90.8

32.8Endgame31.7

20Consistency110

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	15
teleop	21	96
endgame	4	34
foul	0	20
total	36	165

Result

Final score

36 – 165

Prediction correct · off by 51.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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