Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

243.53 – 123.48

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

243 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 36.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 495.7 ±11.2

2539Krypton Cougars

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 132.31Rank 6Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

87Diablo

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 34.46Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5401Fightin' Robotic Owls

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 76.76Rank 16Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 370.3 ±11.2

1640Sab-BOT-age

Season APEX 278.5Event APEX 78.06Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8721Code Name M.I.T.

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 40.47Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2554The Warhawks

Season APEX 55.2Event APEX 4.95Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2539, 87, 5401

/ 100 compat

Projected

243.5 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2539, 87, 5401

Auto

39.8 17%

Teleop

149.0 63%

Endgame

49.4 21%

Strengths

· 2539 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1640, 8721, 2554

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1640, 8721, 2554

Auto

40.5 32%

Teleop

51.3 41%

Endgame

33.7 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.25 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score243.5pts

Blue projected score123.5pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 120.1
Score range: 98–269
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 294 vs event baseline 138.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

495.7Season APEX370.3

39.8Auto40.5

149Teleop51.3

49.4Endgame33.7

10Consistency81

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	21
teleop	91	19
endgame	62	11
foul	15	0
total	243	51

Result

Final score

243 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 36.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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