Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

99.28 – 10.58

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

109 – 45

Prediction correct · off by 22.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 223.2 ±11

2722Charge Robotics

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 66.83Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

427LANCE-A-LOT

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 16.92Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2016Mighty Monkey Wrenches

Season APEX 83.7Event APEX 15.53Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 155.7 ±12.7

5490The Dark Byte

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 7.4Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10143Northeast Vikings

Season APEX 56.1Event APEX 9.33Rank 34Record 1-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8630CAP ROBOTICS

Season APEX 48.1Event APEX -6.15Rank 31Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2722, 427, 2016

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2722, 427, 2016

Auto

22.5 23%

Teleop

44.8 46%

Endgame

30.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5490, 10143, 8630

/ 100 compat

Projected

10.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5490, 10143, 8630

Auto

14.4 92%

Teleop

14.4 92%

Endgame

-13.1 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.99 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score99.3pts

Blue projected score10.6pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 88.7
Score range: -14–124
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 154 vs event baseline 139.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

223.2Season APEX155.7

22.5Auto14.4

44.8Teleop14.4

30.6Endgame-13.1

38Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	15
teleop	77	17
endgame	17	13
foul	0	0
total	109	45

Result

Final score

109 – 45

Prediction correct · off by 22.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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