Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

118.85 – 120.03

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

133 – 232

Prediction correct · off by 63.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 277.8 ±12.4

4637BambieBotz

Season APEX 9.6Event APEX 10.46Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8721Code Name M.I.T.

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 39.69Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2590Nemesis

Season APEX 231.6Event APEX 68.7Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 432.4 ±10.5

7587Metuchen Momentum

Season APEX 108.6Event APEX 46.4Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1640Sab-BOT-age

Season APEX 278.5Event APEX 65.17Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4342Demon Robotics

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 8.46Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4637, 8721, 2590

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4637, 8721, 2590

Auto

38.9 32%

Teleop

61.8 51%

Endgame

21.5 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7587, 1640, 4342

/ 100 compat

Projected

120 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7587, 1640, 4342

Auto

42.1 33%

Teleop

44.7 35%

Endgame

39.2 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score118.9pts

Blue projected score120pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1.2
Score range: 94–145
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 365 vs event baseline 138.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

277.8Season APEX432.4

38.9Auto42.1

61.8Teleop44.7

21.5Endgame39.2

46Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	35
teleop	83	137
endgame	15	55
foul	0	5
total	133	232

Result

Final score

133 – 232

Prediction correct · off by 63.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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