Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

176.6 – 117.88

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

205 – 103

Prediction correct · off by 21.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 498.2 ±9.8

4285Camo-Bots

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 81.29Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1807Redbird Robotics

Season APEX 197.4Event APEX 18.92Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1089Team Mercury

Season APEX 150Event APEX 76.39Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 272.6 ±9.8

5401Fightin' Robotic Owls

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 82.76Rank 16Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

2554The Warhawks

Season APEX 55.2Event APEX 5.96Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4575Gemini

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 29.16Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4285, 1807, 1089

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4285, 1807, 1089

Auto

30.9 20%

Teleop

95.2 61%

Endgame

30.9 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5401, 2554, 4575

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5401, 2554, 4575

Auto

23.4 20%

Teleop

62.0 52%

Endgame

34.4 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.98 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score176.6pts

Blue projected score117.9pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 58.7
Score range: 93–202
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 308 vs event baseline 138.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

498.2Season APEX272.6

30.9Auto23.4

95.2Teleop62

30.9Endgame34.4

90Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	24
teleop	114	44
endgame	50	35
foul	15	0
total	205	103

Result

Final score

205 – 103

Prediction correct · off by 21.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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