Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

311 – 316.08

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

191 – 216

Prediction correct · off by 110 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 642.9 ±9.3

2539Krypton Cougars

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 126.88Rank 6Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5789The Other Owls

Season APEX 64.6Event APEX 41.54Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

103Cybersonics

Season APEX 276.7Event APEX 142.58Rank 2Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 547 ±9.9

321RoboLancers

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 33.99Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

834SparTechs

Season APEX 86Event APEX 82.41Rank 13Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

316LUNATECS

A+

Season APEX 329.3Event APEX 199.68Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2539, 5789, 103

/ 100 compat

Projected

311 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2539, 5789, 103

Auto

69.4 23%

Teleop

176.2 57%

Endgame

61.8 20%

Strengths

· 103 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 321, 834, 316

/ 100 compat

Projected

316.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 321, 834, 316

Auto

64.0 20%

Teleop

169.0 54%

Endgame

81.2 26%

Strengths

· 316 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score311pts

Blue projected score316.1pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -5.1
Score range: 284–343
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 407 vs event baseline 148.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

642.9Season APEX547

69.4Auto64

176.2Teleop169

61.8Endgame81.2

31Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	81
teleop	88	107
endgame	48	18
foul	15	10
total	191	216

Result

Final score

191 – 216

Prediction correct · off by 110 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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