Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

124.56 – 147.66

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

88 – 63

Prediction missed · off by 60.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 155.6 ±11.6

9027PATH to Domination

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 64.16Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7414Retrobotics

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 30.9Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4750Bert

Season APEX 37.8Event APEX 29.5Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 239.9 ±11

1712Dawgma

Season APEX 100Event APEX 38.33Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2016Mighty Monkey Wrenches

Season APEX 83.7Event APEX 28.41Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1257Parallel Universe

Season APEX 56.2Event APEX 80.92Rank 12Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9027, 7414, 4750

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9027, 7414, 4750

Auto

17.8 15%

Teleop

56.2 47%

Endgame

44.4 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1712, 2016, 1257

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1712, 2016, 1257

Auto

38.8 28%

Teleop

79.6 58%

Endgame

19.2 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score124.6pts

Blue projected score147.7pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -23.1
Score range: 100–173
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 151 vs event baseline 140.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

155.6Season APEX239.9

17.8Auto38.8

56.2Teleop79.6

44.4Endgame19.2

40Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	19
teleop	37	28
endgame	23	16
foul	5	0
total	88	63

Result

Final score

88 – 63

Prediction missed · off by 60.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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