Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 95.25

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

90 – 243

Prediction correct · off by 118.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 112.9 ±12.2

2554The Warhawks

Season APEX 55.2Event APEX -5.89Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4637BambieBotz

Season APEX 9.6Event APEX -4.21Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8630CAP ROBOTICS

Season APEX 48.1Event APEX -25.91Rank 31Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 389.1 ±11.2

8704Void Warranty

Season APEX 24.6Event APEX -17.72Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5401Fightin' Robotic Owls

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 67.2Rank 16Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

2590Nemesis

Season APEX 231.6Event APEX 45.77Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2554, 4637, 8630

/ 100 compat

Projected

-36 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2554, 4637, 8630

Auto

18.8 0%

Teleop

-41.8 100%

Endgame

-7.6 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8704, 5401, 2590

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.3 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8704, 5401, 2590

Auto

27.2 31%

Teleop

52.3 60%

Endgame

7.2 8%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.79 · Blue 2.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score-36pts

Blue projected score95.3pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -95.2
Score range: -25–120
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 333 vs event baseline 141.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

112.9Season APEX389.1

18.8Auto27.2

-41.8Teleop52.3

-7.6Endgame7.2

76Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	36
teleop	46	146
endgame	25	61
foul	0	0
total	90	243

Result

Final score

90 – 243

Prediction correct · off by 118.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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