Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

74.99 – 134.85

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

50 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 32.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 234.9 ±12.4

714Panthera

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 32.63Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5490The Dark Byte

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 13.01Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

321RoboLancers

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 29.35Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 249.8 ±12.2

4285Camo-Bots

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 77.6Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4750Bert

Season APEX 37.8Event APEX 27.13Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

87Diablo

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 30.12Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 714, 5490, 321

/ 100 compat

Projected

75 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 714, 5490, 321

Auto

11.5 16%

Teleop

44.8 63%

Endgame

15.3 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4285, 4750, 87

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4285, 4750, 87

Auto

21.7 16%

Teleop

77.8 58%

Endgame

35.1 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.15 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score75pts

Blue projected score134.9pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -59.9
Score range: 49–161
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 224 vs event baseline 141.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

234.9Season APEX249.8

11.5Auto21.7

44.8Teleop77.8

15.3Endgame35.1

27Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	27
teleop	7	78
endgame	29	19
foul	0	50
total	50	174

Result

Final score

50 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 32.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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