Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 82.25

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

47 – 137

Prediction correct · off by 50.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 165.2 ±11.7

8704Void Warranty

Season APEX 24.6Event APEX -26.39Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10143Northeast Vikings

Season APEX 56.1Event APEX 3.39Rank 34Record 1-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4575Gemini

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 21.03Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 222.3 ±11

7414Retrobotics

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 36.29Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1712Dawgma

Season APEX 100Event APEX 24.91Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10584Ridge Robotics

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX 21.05Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8704, 10143, 4575

/ 100 compat

Projected

-2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8704, 10143, 4575

Auto

11.7 0%

Teleop

-17.3 100%

Endgame

-0.7 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7414, 1712, 10584

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7414, 1712, 10584

Auto

8.3 10%

Teleop

44.0 55%

Endgame

27.0 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.95 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score-2pts

Blue projected score82.3pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -82.2
Score range: -26–108
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 184 vs event baseline 142.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

165.2Season APEX222.3

11.7Auto8.3

-17.3Teleop44

-0.7Endgame27

108Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	20
teleop	19	82
endgame	14	20
foul	0	15
total	47	137

Result

Final score

47 – 137

Prediction correct · off by 50.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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