Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

71.77 – 286.45

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

79 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 61.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 390.3 ±10.7

87Diablo

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 23.08Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

321RoboLancers

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 25.64Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1807Redbird Robotics

Season APEX 197.4Event APEX 23.05Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 422.5 ±9.9

4575Gemini

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 38.32Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

103Cybersonics

Season APEX 276.7Event APEX 149.84Rank 2Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

2722Charge Robotics

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 98.29Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 87, 321, 1807

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.8 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 87, 321, 1807

Auto

8.7 14%

Teleop

39.7 63%

Endgame

14.6 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4575, 103, 2722

/ 100 compat

Projected

286.5 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4575, 103, 2722

Auto

41.0 14%

Teleop

157.7 56%

Endgame

84.7 30%

Strengths

· 103 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.69 · Blue 2.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score71.8pts

Blue projected score286.5pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -214.7
Score range: 46–312
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 249 vs event baseline 142.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

390.3Season APEX422.5

8.7Auto41

39.7Teleop157.7

14.6Endgame84.7

65Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	41
teleop	14	97
endgame	25	32
foul	15	0
total	79	170

Result

Final score

79 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 61.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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