Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

89.2 – 86.39

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

87 – 34

Prediction correct · off by 27.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 193.6 ±11

2016Mighty Monkey Wrenches

Season APEX 83.7Event APEX 18.4Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5789The Other Owls

Season APEX 64.6Event APEX 45.76Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4342Demon Robotics

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 25.04Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 208.4 ±12.2

7587Metuchen Momentum

Season APEX 108.6Event APEX 69.52Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8630CAP ROBOTICS

Season APEX 48.1Event APEX -27.38Rank 31Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 97

714Panthera

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 44.25Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2016, 5789, 4342

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2016, 5789, 4342

Auto

19.0 23%

Teleop

42.8 52%

Endgame

21.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7587, 8630, 714

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7587, 8630, 714

Auto

25.4 31%

Teleop

36.7 44%

Endgame

20.6 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score89.2pts

Blue projected score86.4pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 2.8
Score range: 60–115
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 121 vs event baseline 145.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

193.6Season APEX208.4

19Auto25.4

42.8Teleop36.7

21Endgame20.6

63Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	14
teleop	43	9
endgame	20	11
foul	0	0
total	87	34

Result

Final score

87 – 34

Prediction correct · off by 27.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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