Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

114.95 – 118

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

151 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 40.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 218.3 ±12.1

10143Northeast Vikings

Season APEX 56.1Event APEX -5.9Rank 34Record 1-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9100Robo Roses

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 9.34Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

834SparTechs

Season APEX 86Event APEX 111.51Rank 13Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 481.6 ±9.8

1712Dawgma

Season APEX 100Event APEX 15.47Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1089Team Mercury

Season APEX 150Event APEX 72.43Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2590Nemesis

Season APEX 231.6Event APEX 30.1Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10143, 9100, 834

/ 100 compat

Projected

115 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10143, 9100, 834

Auto

32.3 30%

Teleop

47.6 44%

Endgame

28.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1712, 1089, 2590

/ 100 compat

Projected

118 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1712, 1089, 2590

Auto

26.1 23%

Teleop

84.3 75%

Endgame

2.7 2%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score115pts

Blue projected score118pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -3
Score range: 90–143
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 314 vs event baseline 141.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

218.3Season APEX481.6

32.3Auto26.1

47.6Teleop84.3

28.3Endgame2.7

49Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	62
teleop	65	81
endgame	47	20
foul	0	0
total	151	163

Result

Final score

151 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 40.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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