Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

92.68 – 109.77

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

106 – 128

Prediction correct · off by 15.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 413.7 ±11.2

2016Mighty Monkey Wrenches

Season APEX 83.7Event APEX 11.58Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1640Sab-BOT-age

Season APEX 278.5Event APEX 73.27Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5490The Dark Byte

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 7.83Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 293 ±10.5

321RoboLancers

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 24.11Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1712Dawgma

Season APEX 100Event APEX 32.01Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2722Charge Robotics

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 53.65Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2016, 1640, 5490

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2016, 1640, 5490

Auto

31.2 34%

Teleop

43.8 48%

Endgame

15.5 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 321, 1712, 2722

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 321, 1712, 2722

Auto

26.6 25%

Teleop

54.8 51%

Endgame

27.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.44 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score92.7pts

Blue projected score109.8pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -17.1
Score range: 64–139
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 234 vs event baseline 163.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

413.7Season APEX293

31.2Auto26.6

43.8Teleop54.8

15.5Endgame27

53Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	15
teleop	44	74
endgame	16	34
foul	0	5
total	106	128

Result

Final score

106 – 128

Prediction correct · off by 15.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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