Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0.53 – 152.47

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

79 – 140

Prediction correct · off by 45.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 192.4 ±11.7

5490The Dark Byte

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 1.21Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10584Ridge Robotics

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX 1.5Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2554The Warhawks

Season APEX 55.2Event APEX -2.18Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 380.9 ±10.5

5789The Other Owls

Season APEX 64.6Event APEX 60.47Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1640Sab-BOT-age

Season APEX 278.5Event APEX 68.47Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4750Bert

Season APEX 37.8Event APEX 23.53Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5490, 10584, 2554

/ 100 compat

Projected

0.5 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5490, 10584, 2554

Auto

19.9 0%

Teleop

-3.6 100%

Endgame

-16.6 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5789, 1640, 4750

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.5 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5789, 1640, 4750

Auto

40.5 27%

Teleop

78.7 52%

Endgame

31.9 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.72 · Blue 2.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score0.5pts

Blue projected score152.5pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -151.9
Score range: -25–178
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 219 vs event baseline 142.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

192.4Season APEX380.9

19.9Auto40.5

-3.6Teleop78.7

-16.6Endgame31.9

77Consistency125

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	37
teleop	37	76
endgame	23	27
foul	0	0
total	79	140

Result

Final score

79 – 140

Prediction correct · off by 45.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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