Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

128.15 – 231.99

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

170 – 233

Prediction correct · off by 21.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 262.9 ±12.8

87Diablo

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 21.06Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1089Team Mercury

Season APEX 150Event APEX 65.25Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

714Panthera

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 41.84Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 641.8 ±9.3

2539Krypton Cougars

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 126.38Rank 6Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

2590Nemesis

Season APEX 231.6Event APEX 29.79Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7587Metuchen Momentum

Season APEX 108.6Event APEX 75.82Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 87, 1089, 714

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 87, 1089, 714

Auto

10.6 9%

Teleop

76.0 67%

Endgame

27.1 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2539, 2590, 7587

/ 100 compat

Projected

232 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2539, 2590, 7587

Auto

38.1 16%

Teleop

150.0 63%

Endgame

49.5 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.03 · Blue 2.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score128.2pts

Blue projected score232pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -103.8
Score range: 103–257
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 403 vs event baseline 141.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

262.9Season APEX641.8

10.6Auto38.1

76Teleop150

27.1Endgame49.5

18Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	85
teleop	94	129
endgame	57	19
foul	0	0
total	170	233

Result

Final score

170 – 233

Prediction correct · off by 21.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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